The Sun Does Not Always Shine Forever

One of the best pieces of advice I ever heard was: “The sun does not always shine forever.”  I do not remember who that person was, or even when it was said, but the words were so powerful to me that I will never forget them.  What these words meant to me was that good fortune does not always continue forever. Instead, the most important thing we can do in our work lives is (1) be be ready for change and (2) prepare for change.  Instead, what many of us do is guard against change.  Guarding against change rarely does any good and usually does more harm than it does good.

Are you in a role in your career right now when you are guarding against change?  It is never good to be on the defense in your career and life. Instead, you should be on the offense in your career.  The people who win in their careers and lives are always the people who are on the offense.  When you are on the offense, you are winning, and when you are on the defense, you are retreating.  You cannot retreat forever.  Inevitably, you will come up against a corner and find yourself boxed in with nowhere to go.  At that point, you will lose your job, your home, and whatever you are doing at the moment.

The best possible thing you can do is be on the offense.

There are many companies in America that are on the defense right now.  These include companies in the financial industry and numerous manufacturing companies.  When I have been out and about in Los Angeles and heard people talking, I have heard them say things like, “No one is hiring.  There are no jobs.”  While I disagree with this statement, I do believe that these people are finding a disproportionate number of firms and companies out there who are not hiring due to the fact that they are in retreat.  Companies go into retreat when people stop spending, and many give up and simply close their doors.

All over the United States at the moment, an incredible number of layoffs are occurring.  What is happening is very sad, and it is devastating to the people that are being affected by it.  When times are good, companies hire people very aggressively.  In many cases, they hire people into jobs where they and their skills are actually redundant.  I have seen this occur more times than I can count.

When business gets good, law firms and other hiring organizations start hiring as many people as they possibly can to do the work.  The people they are hiring become very “cocky” and will jump from firm to firm in search of more money or more prestige.  The people inside the organization will make more demands on the company for benefits and other things.  They may refuse to work as many hours. They may band together against management. They may go on to message boards and complain about their employer.  Meanwhile, these same people watch their lifestyles get better and better, and they go out and purchase nice cars, they may move into nicer apartments or homes, and they feel good about the lives they have achieved.

This is what happens all over. When a company is doing well, the people working inside the company decide (rightly so) that they have contributed to the growth of the company and want in on “the action.”  In the largest companies, the people may unionize.  In smaller companies, the people may band together and simply demand more benefits, higher salaries, and other stuff.  It may be a good idea to try and get benefits when things are going well.  In theory, there is nothing wrong with this idea.  This is a process that is repeated over and over at countless organizations around the world when things are going well.

During good times, a customer service department may go from one to five people.  Other areas of the company may experience similar growth.  When the business goes away (as it inevitably does in many recessions), the people in the department start doing everything possible within their power to protect their jobs.  Despite the fact that very few calls may be coming in, the people in the customer service department will band together and claim they are all needed to field the few calls that are coming in.  The people will tell of the incredible need for customer service people and how much the company will be affected if they are all not there.  These cries for “good customer service” will often come despite the fact that  there are no customers.  The management will listen to this and fear taking action.  The management will continue paying these representatives, and vendors and others who should be being paid will not be paid.

Inside law firms, you may see memos like this going around from the partners to the associates about the work loads:

From: John Quinn
Sent: Thursday, October 09, 2008 2:10 PM
To: Attorneys
Subject: things are slow right now

more so in some offices than others. lawyers are funny. in april, may and june we averaged over 200 hours per attorney–an unbelieveable, perhaps unparalleled work pace for a firm as large as ours. many wondered how we could possibly keep that up. now we’re averaging 150 plus per month and people are worried. so one point to be made here is that “slowness” is relative.

the pace is down significantly because of the coincidence that a number of major matters, on which scores of attys were working full time, went away–trial ended, the case settled, etc–at the same time. it is an amazing fact that of the 10 largest billing matters in 2008 thru the end of sept, 9 have finished or nearly so. these are the kinds of cases that you do not replace immediately.

this really shouldn’t be a cause for concern tho. our basic practice strategy–focusing on high end ip and financial litigation, trial work, being able to be adverse to financial institutions, etc–is clearly sound. in fact, in this business environment, we’re better situated than any firm i know. there will be lots of claims to be brought arising out of the financial mess and they will require firms that can be adverse to banks. we are at the top of that list. and we do not have a corporate dept with deal lawyers with nothing to do. many law firms will suffer. i don’t think we will.

it is to be expected that it would take some time to spool up again after so many large matters went away. there is no cause for nail biting tho.

there are lots of business development things and nonbillable things to be done. we expect that everyone will pitch in on such projects when asked to do so.

John B. Quinn
Quinn Emanuel Urquhart Oliver & Hedges, LLP

While there is likely truth to a memo like this, the fact is that when work starts decreasing inside companies and law firms, people may get very nervous.  The attorneys inside law firms become very nervous because the less work there is, the greater they realize that the sun may not continue to shine forever.  It is a very scary world when we realize that we do not always have employment stability, and that this stability could simply go away.  This is what happens in all companies and organizations, however.  Things eventually slow down, and jobs eventually begin to disappear.  There is a cycle of creation and destruction which characterizes all industries.

A few years ago, I was reading about what a big deal Dell Computers was, and how this company was invincible.  Now I am reading article after article about layoffs and declining market share.  A couple of years ago, I remember reading articles about how amazing Goldman Sachs was, and how it was the most successful investment bank of all time, and how certain people there were earning 100s of millions of dollars.  Now I am reading about how this company is no longer an investment bank and has needed to borrow money from Warren Buffett.  Recently, I have been reading about how great Apple Computers is, but even more recently, I have started reading all these rumors that Steve Jobs is sick and dying.  When he dies, the company will lose any momentum it has.  Yesterday, I read that back in September the American steel industry had one of its best quarters ever, but that the final quarter of the year was one of its worst.  Now steel plants all over the United States are being shut down, and workers are being laid off.  Things are so bad for the US steel industry that they are now seeking a government bailout.

I read articles like this on a daily basis, and what it all says to me is that we cannot take anything for granted.  Inside law firms, what ends up happening when work slows down, is people start losing their jobs.  The law firms generally begin whittling away their weakest (i.e., the people they dislike the most, or the people they feel contribute the least) for performance reasons.  The attorneys are told their work is not up to par, or asked to look for other jobs.  This process will generally occur until the law firm is healthy and earning the money it believes it should be earning again.  This process is occurring at a lot of law firms at the moment.  In fact, I estimate it is occurring at the majority of the larger law firms in the United States.

This same process occurrs inside of companies.  They will begin eliminating redundancies.  The companies will do everything within their power to eliminate as many redundancies as they possibly can so they can return as rapidly as possible to profitability.

The more layoffs I have been seeing in the papers recently, the more I realize how the sun has stopped shining for so many people.  All over the United States, and throughout the world, an incredible number of people have built lives for themselves which are now slipping away.  Employers are pulling in and doing everything possible to eliminate waste.

Where does this leave you?  The first thing is that you need to be ready for change.  You simply cannot expect that your job will go on like it has been forever. The idea that the steel industry in American could go from one of its best quarters ever, to one of its worst almost overnight, sends an incredible message: Nothing is secure.  My grandmother lived through the Great Depression and I remember after this she lived the rest of her life in an incredibly frugal way.  While this extreme may not be necessary, it is important to understand that you need to be ready for change and should have a rainy day fund. (If you do not have one now, start creating one.)

You should also be prepared for change.  This means being aware of other potential jobs you could have and knowing what is going on in the market.  I believe one of the most important things that anyone can do is constantly be aware of what is going on in the market.  While I am the Chief Executive Officer of EmploymentCrossing and am biased, I can assure you that using a site like this that monitors what is going on in the market is an incredibly intelligent and a very good use of your time.  A site like this is no different than checking the stock market to check your worth and the worth of your stocks.  You need to be watching the market because the market is your job security.  With a good market, you are fine, and with a poor market, you have something serious to worry about.  You need to be prepared for change.

Do not spend your life guarding against change.  Many people guard against change, and this is something that does them very little good.  You cannot guard against change forever. You need to be proactive with your life and your career.  If you find that you are protecting yourself and guarding yourself in your existing career, this is not a good sign.  Generally, this means that you feel that you may not be providing value commensurate with what you are paid.  If this is the case, then you need to step up and provide more value, or find somewhere you can provide value that matches your contribution.